There's this substack, "Strength In Numbers," run by a data guy, G. Elliott Morris. He used to be the editorial director of Data Analytics at ABC News, where he ran the data-journalism website FiveThirtyEight. Before that, he was the data journalist for The Economist, and runs his own consulting firm, Morris Predictive Insights.
And he just came up with some interesting polling on Democrats versus Republicans.
In his new February poll, 53% of U.S. adults say the Democratic Party is out of touch with the concerns of most Americans. An identical percentage — 53% — say the same about Republicans.
He tested out the "Democrats are too liberal and need to tack to the center" theory, and concluded the opposite.
"When Americans say Democrats are “out of touch” they don’t only — or even primarily — mean “too progressive.” This type of thinking is another example of people committing the Strategist’s Fallacy instead of thinking about what is really being measured by the poll question being asked.
But it's pretty wonky, go read the whole thing. He concludes:
We can be confident, in other words, that being seen as stronger is more valuable to Democrats right now than being seen as even less extreme. And remember, Democrats currently have the advantage on perceived extremism, whereas they lag the Republicans on strength/toughness.
In other words, the model-based evidence reinforces the simpler math: an equal improvement in strength perceptions is worth nearly twice as much to Democrats as an equal improvement in moderation. And because these estimates come from the same regression — controlling for partisanship and past vote — they can’t be dismissed as artifacts of partisan sorting. Among voters with the same party ID and the same 2024 vote, those who see Democrats as tougher, more principled, and less weak are substantially more likely to vote Democratic in 2026 than those who see the GOP as extreme.
Well, I like it because it confirms my own biases! But here's how we can test Elliot's conclusion.
Right now, Jasmine Crockett leads James Talerico by 12 points in a state poll. If that holds, and she's the Democratic Senate nominee, we will see much wailing and gnashing of teeth among the (weak) Democratic establishment. Some of it will be warranted! She's rough around the edges (much like AOC in her first term) and has been known to be a little thin-skinned, kicking a reporter who wrote a critical piece out of her rally.
However! There is no question at all that she is a truth teller and a fighter. Everyone sees her as a fighter! If Elliot's theory holds true, that may give her the edge she needs to win against crooked Ken Paxton in a statewide Texas election. We shall see.
