March 7, 2026

A classified report by the National Intelligence Council found that even a large-scale assault on Iran launched by the United States is unlikely to oust the Islamic republic’s military and clerical establishment, as the Trump administration raises the specter of an extended military campaign that officials say has “only just begun.”

Reports? We don't need no stinkin' reports! We have the best, most accurate set of "gut feelings" like has never been seen before!

So this won't change a thing.

The report, completed about a week before the United States and Israel initiated the war on Feb. 28, outlined succession scenarios stemming from either a narrowly tailored campaign against Iran’s leaders or a broader assault against its leadership and government institutions, the people familiar with its findings said. In both cases, the intelligence concluded that Iran’s clerical and military establishment would respond to the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by following protocols designed to preserve continuity of power, these people said.

The prospect of Iran’s fragmented opposition taking control of the country was described as “unlikely" --something any random politics junkie could have told them.

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